Analysing your IQ
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Rare, unpredictable events with massive impact happen more often than our models suggest.
Mental models are thinking tools. Black Swan Awareness is one of the most powerful—used by successful founders, investors, and strategists to cut through complexity.
Build systems that survive or benefit from extreme events. Don't assume normal distribution.
Black Swan Awareness works by providing a reliable heuristic for a common class of problems. Instead of reinventing decision-making each time, you apply a tested pattern.
The 2008 crash, COVID-19, and technological disruptions were all "impossible until they weren't."
Use Black Swan Awareness when facing complex decisions with multiple variables. It's especially powerful when conventional wisdom seems wrong or when you're operating in unfamiliar territory.
Over-applying: Not every problem benefits from this model. Match the tool to the situation.
Under-applying: People learn the model but don't practice it. Application takes repetition.
Misunderstanding the principle: Surface-level understanding leads to poor execution. Study the examples.
Ignoring context: The same model works differently in different domains. Adapt accordingly.
Identify a current decision you're facing. Write down the assumptions you're making. Challenge each one.
Look at a past failure. Apply Black Swan Awareness retroactively—would it have changed the outcome?
Teach the model to someone else. If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough.
Set a reminder to apply this model once per week for the next month. Track the results.
No single model handles every situation. Build a toolkit of complementary frameworks.
Mental models require specific cognitive traits to execute. Do you have the Emotional Health for this?
Rare, unpredictable events with massive impact happen more often than our models suggest.
Build systems that survive or benefit from extreme events. Don't assume normal distribution.
The 2008 crash, COVID-19, and technological disruptions were all "impossible until they weren't."
Use Black Swan Awareness when facing complex decisions in the risk management domain, when conventional approaches aren't working, or when you need a structured framework for analysis.
Black Swan Awareness is used by strategic thinkers, business leaders, and anyone who needs to make high-stakes decisions under uncertainty. It's particularly popular in investing, startups, and engineering.
Yes. Mental models are learnable skills, not innate talents. The key is deliberate practice—actively applying the model to real decisions, not just reading about it.