Analysing your IQ
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Things that have survived a long time are likely to survive even longer.
Mental models are thinking tools. The Lindy Effect is one of the most powerful—used by successful founders, investors, and strategists to cut through complexity.
Prefer old, time-tested ideas, technologies, and practices over novel, unproven ones.
The power of The Lindy Effect comes from its ability to compress complexity. A good mental model acts like a lens—it brings the important features into focus.
Books that remained popular for 50 years will likely last another 50; this year's bestseller may not.
This model is most useful when you're stuck. If your current approach isn't working, The Lindy Effect often reveals the hidden constraint.
Over-applying: Not every problem benefits from this model. Match the tool to the situation.
Under-applying: People learn the model but don't practice it. Application takes repetition.
Misunderstanding the principle: Surface-level understanding leads to poor execution. Study the examples.
Ignoring context: The same model works differently in different domains. Adapt accordingly.
Identify a current decision you're facing. Write down the assumptions you're making. Challenge each one.
Look at a past failure. Apply The Lindy Effect retroactively—would it have changed the outcome?
Teach the model to someone else. If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough.
Set a reminder to apply this model once per week for the next month. Track the results.
The Lindy Effect often pairs well with other Strategy models. Combining frameworks multiplies their power.
Mental models require specific cognitive traits to execute. Do you have the Intelligence for this?
Things that have survived a long time are likely to survive even longer.
Prefer old, time-tested ideas, technologies, and practices over novel, unproven ones.
Books that remained popular for 50 years will likely last another 50; this year's bestseller may not.
Use The Lindy Effect when facing complex decisions in the strategy domain, when conventional approaches aren't working, or when you need a structured framework for analysis.
The Lindy Effect is used by strategic thinkers, business leaders, and anyone who needs to make high-stakes decisions under uncertainty. It's particularly popular in investing, startups, and engineering.
Yes. Mental models are learnable skills, not innate talents. The key is deliberate practice—actively applying the model to real decisions, not just reading about it.