Analysing your IQ
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People often hide their true preferences to conform socially, masking real sentiment.
Mental models are thinking tools. Preference Falsification is one of the most powerful—used by successful founders, investors, and strategists to cut through complexity.
Private polls differ from public statements. Underground preferences can suddenly surface.
Preference Falsification works by providing a reliable heuristic for a common class of problems. Instead of reinventing decision-making each time, you apply a tested pattern.
Everyone says they love the new initiative, but privately they think it's doomed.
This model is most useful when you're stuck. If your current approach isn't working, Preference Falsification often reveals the hidden constraint.
Over-applying: Not every problem benefits from this model. Match the tool to the situation.
Under-applying: People learn the model but don't practice it. Application takes repetition.
Misunderstanding the principle: Surface-level understanding leads to poor execution. Study the examples.
Ignoring context: The same model works differently in different domains. Adapt accordingly.
Identify a current decision you're facing. Write down the assumptions you're making. Challenge each one.
Look at a past failure. Apply Preference Falsification retroactively—would it have changed the outcome?
Teach the model to someone else. If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough.
Set a reminder to apply this model once per week for the next month. Track the results.
Preference Falsification often pairs well with other Strategy models. Combining frameworks multiplies their power.
Mental models require specific cognitive traits to execute. Do you have the Emotional Health for this?
People often hide their true preferences to conform socially, masking real sentiment.
Private polls differ from public statements. Underground preferences can suddenly surface.
Everyone says they love the new initiative, but privately they think it's doomed.
Use Preference Falsification when facing complex decisions in the strategy domain, when conventional approaches aren't working, or when you need a structured framework for analysis.
Preference Falsification is used by strategic thinkers, business leaders, and anyone who needs to make high-stakes decisions under uncertainty. It's particularly popular in investing, startups, and engineering.
Yes. Mental models are learnable skills, not innate talents. The key is deliberate practice—actively applying the model to real decisions, not just reading about it.