Analysing your IQ
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AKA: "Vividness Bias"
The tendency to judge how common or likely something is by how easily examples come to mind.
Availability Heuristic is one of the most common cognitive errors—and one of the hardest to spot in yourself. This page explains what it is, why your brain does it, and how to mitigate it.
You see one viral story about a plane crash and suddenly feel flying is “dangerous,” even though driving is statistically riskier.
This bias is particularly dangerous because it operates below conscious awareness. By the time you notice it, the damage is often done.
This error is driven by Memory retrieval favors vivid, emotional, and recent events, which hijacks probability estimation..
The mechanism is rooted in memory retrieval favors vivid, emotional, and recent events, which hijacks probability estimation.. Your brain isn't broken—it's running outdated software in a new environment.
In investing: Availability Heuristic leads to holding losing positions too long or selling winners too early.
In relationships: This bias causes people to interpret ambiguous signals in ways that confirm existing beliefs about partners.
In work: Availability Heuristic makes it harder to update strategies when market conditions change.
In health: People ignore symptoms that contradict their self-image as "healthy" or "young."
Availability Heuristic has been studied extensively since the cognitive revolution. Research consistently shows that even warned subjects fall for it—awareness alone doesn't provide immunity.
Replace anecdotes with base rates. Ask: “Compared to what?” Look for denominators and timeframes.
Seek disconfirming evidence: Actively look for data that challenges your current belief.
Use decision journals: Write down predictions before outcomes are known, then review accuracy.
Consult diverse perspectives: People with different backgrounds spot different biases.
Implement decision rules: Pre-commit to criteria before emotionally charged situations arise.
Time-box decisions: Revisit important conclusions after a cooling-off period.
Some brains are more susceptible to this than others. Test your Intelligence to find out.
The tendency to judge how common or likely something is by how easily examples come to mind.
The alternate name "Vividness Bias" captures the intuitive essence of the bias. Availability Heuristic is the formal psychological term, while "Vividness Bias" describes what it feels like in practice.
Replace anecdotes with base rates. Ask: “Compared to what?” Look for denominators and timeframes.
The underlying mechanism is memory retrieval favors vivid, emotional, and recent events, which hijacks probability estimation.. Human brains evolved heuristics for speed and survival, not accuracy in modern contexts.
Yes. Intelligence doesn't provide immunity—sometimes it makes the bias worse because smart people are better at rationalizing. Awareness and structured decision processes are more protective than raw IQ.
You see one viral story about a plane crash and suddenly feel flying is “dangerous,” even though driving is statistically riskier.