Petyr Baelish (Littlefinger) IQ

Littlefinger rises from minor nobility to Master of Coin and Lord Protector of the Vale by finding the pressure points in powerful people. He sets the wheels turning with the death of Jon Arryn, betrays Ned Stark at the decisive moment and, with help, arranges the death of Joffrey. What keeps him short of the very top is not lack of ability but the one thing he never adequately modeled: patient, quiet people like the Stark girls. His plans are cunning, and mostly short-range.

Adult.

Six ratings out of ten, each based on what is shown on the page or screen. They are how the estimate is built, not a substitute for it.

Deduction7/10

Solving new problems from thin information

Strategy9/10

Multi-step plans that account for other minds

Knowledge7/10

Depth and breadth of what they know

Invention4/10

Building or devising something genuinely new

Adaptability8/10

Recovering when the plan breaks

Reading people10/10

Understanding what other people want and will do

1. Jon Arryn and the Lannister frame

   Strong evidence

   Backstory, revealed in A Storm of Swords and in Season 4

   Before the story begins, Baelish has Lysa Arryn poison her husband Jon, the Hand of the King, and lets the blame drift toward the Lannisters. The books reveal Lysa's confession in A Storm of Swords, and the show reveals it in Season 4. It is planning many steps ahead, with someone else's hands doing the act, and it starts the war he later profits from. The move that matters is the redirection of suspicion, and it means his real work was done before the story starts.

2. Betraying Ned Stark

   Strong evidence

   Season 1 (and the first book)

   Ned trusts Baelish to help him, and at the decisive moment Baelish turns the City Watch against him, ensuring Ned's capture. He had judged that Ned's honesty would make him predictable. It shows insight into a very different personality, and a willingness to spend a long-built relationship on one large payoff. It is the moment that establishes him as a serious operator, and the best example of how he uses other people's virtues against them.

3. Saying chaos is a ladder

   Minor evidence

   Season 3, 'The Climb'

   In a conversation with Varys, Baelish explains that chaos is a ladder, not a pit. It suits a man with no family, army or lands to lean on. It is a statement of method: he does not try to win by force, he looks for the gaps that open when order fails and climbs through them. As a piece of self-description it is tidy, and the rest of his career mostly bears it out.

4. Removing Joffrey

   Strong evidence

   Season 4

   At Joffrey's wedding, Baelish helps arrange the poisoning with Olenna Tyrell, then spirits Sansa away by ship while the Lannisters look elsewhere. It combines a multi-person plan, a timed distraction and an exit route. He picks an ally who hates the same target and lets her do the visible work, which lets him work with dangerous partners without seeming to. Complexity, timing and secrecy make this his best single operation.

5. Taking control of the Vale

   Moderate evidence

   Season 4 and Season 6; A Storm of Swords in the books

   In Season 4 Baelish marries Lysa Arryn, kills her when she becomes a liability, and presents himself to the Vale lords as guardian of her son Robin. In Season 6 he brings the Vale's army to Winterfell just as the Boltons are about to win. The sequence is ruthless and effective, using a marriage as a stepping stone and a murder as an exit. In the books he becomes Lord Protector after Lysa's death at the end of A Storm of Swords.

• The Ramsay mistakeSeason 5Baelish sends Sansa to marry Ramsay Bolton, intending to put her in position to reclaim Winterfell, and does not foresee the abuse she would suffer or how it would sour her toward him. A careful planner would have seen that risk. It is one of the show's clearest misjudgments, and it puts a stain on his claim to read people.
• Trapped by Sansa and AryaSeason 7Baelish tries to split the Stark sisters and is instead confronted by both at a trial in Winterfell, accused of his crimes and killed with his own dagger. He had built a career on other people's blind spots and missed his own. He underestimates their ability to work together, and the fall is fast.
• Fear of the unpredictableSeries-wideBaelish does best with people who want one thing badly and worst with those who can wait. His plans need actors he can read, and he is exposed when they change. That narrows his adaptability compared with the very highest strategists, and it is where his plans tend to fail.

Planning under uncertainty and reading people carry most of the estimate, since he manipulates several houses at once. His financial skill, shown in his role as Master of Coin, adds to knowledge and adaptability. Invention is low: he uses systems rather than making new ones. The error rate is the deciding element. In the TV version he sends Sansa to Ramsay Bolton and later misreads the Stark sisters. That is why we stop at 145 and not the 160s some fans claim, and why the range is wide.

IQ estimates for fictional characters are fan analysis: an argument from what the story shows, not a measurement. Read the full method and the standards we hold every profile to.

The argument is usually Littlefinger against Varys, or Tyrion Lannister. Varys has better information, Tyrion has better judgment, and Baelish has the boldest plans and the fewest scruples. Fans also disagree about the TV ending, which many think does him a disservice compared with the books, where he is still alive and scheming. We rank him high on strategy and insight but below Tyrion on overall reasoning, since Baelish's approach is to create problems others suffer from. A great schemer is not the same as an infallible one.

• Tyrion Lannister IQ: 150The best political mind in Westeros, mostly
• Frank Underwood IQ: 138A politician who counts every vote
• Gus Fring IQ: 150Patience is his strongest weapon
• Light Yagami IQ: 155Ruthless planner, fatally proud